On making prections

Friday, and my experiment with different writing styles while still maintaining instructional value continues. While I cannot say whether my skills improve, I certainly learn a few things and have fun in the process.

This note was inspired by a study conducted by two economists on homeowners' ability to predict the future value of their homes. Two things struck me when I heard about the study:

First, the fact that humans are worse at predicting things than chance (or monkeys throwing darts), is a finding that has been repeatedly confirmed by different scientific studies for decades now. So, why are we as humans so keen on believing our assumptions about the future are ’true’? I know Excel produces great projection graphs, but still.

Second, the value of taxpayers’ money being spent on studies that simply reiterate the same point in slightly different contexts is noteworthy (to say the least). Why is academia so keen on filling small gaps in existing theories instead of exploring questions that really matter? (And I am really asking here. I am not looking for a "because of the publish or perish-system"-kind of answer. Isn't the very purpose of science to explore new things and develop new knowledge?).

So here comes the note on predictions (the one about the purpose of science will be saved for later):

On making predictions: The sooner we recognize that no one can accurately predict the future, the sooner we can redirect our attention to the critical issues that require our attention today. (This applies equally to researchers studying predictions.)